The Summit of NATO and the Southern Caucasus. New dividing lines?
The results of the summit of NATO that took place in Warsaw on July 8-9 have been the subject for different discussions and comments not only among the Armenian experts and politicians but also in the media field.

As some analysts think, the decision of NATO to deploy an armed contingent of 4000 people in Poland and Baltic countries, to strengthen forces at the Black Sea, is a clear message to Russia that these countries are full members of the pact and armies are deployed near the border of Russia to protect them. The other part of the analysts think that historical decisions were not made in Warsaw, the multinational contingent of 4000 people was not appropriate for the requirements of Baltic countries´ security and the main goal of that proceedings is to strengthen the positions of the pact before the council meeting of Russia and NATO .

¨Several problems were solved during the Summit of NATO in Warsaw. First of all, NATO deploys armed forces in the Baltic republics and in Warsaw permanently, they become full members of the pact. During the summit it was notified that Georgia will become a member of NATO (though the terms were not mentioned) and the close cooperation with Ukraine will proceed,” Head of the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan said and emphasized the fact that these decisions had been made before the council meeting of Russia and NATO. “And this means that the decisions were made without considering the position of Russia,” Grigorian added.

At the same time, the NATO countries highlighted the importance of the dialogue with Russia. ¨This means that NATO was led by two circumstances in its decisions: to meet the requirements of the security of the allies – the Baltic countries and Poland on the one hand and to miss the dialogue window with Russia, on the other hand,” he said.

On July 12, Stepan Grigoryan, Head of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation, Political Scientist, Alexandr Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, Political Scientist, Tevan Poghosyan, RA MP, Member of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Delegation in the National Assembly took part in the discussion on ¨NATO Summit in Warsaw and the Southern Caucasus: New dividing lines?¨ at Media Center. 

As Alexander Iskandarian said, the summit of Warsaw was very similar to the pact summit of Wales from the informative policy perspective. ¨That time again historical decisions were expected to be made but they were not. What happened in Warsaw was previously clear. The deployment of few armed forces in the Baltic countries was not the same what those states desired. They just wanted military bases,” the political scientist said.

What refers to the promises given to Georgia and Ukraine, the speaker thinks that in such cases NATO always makes a sentry announcement that every country, which corresponds to the available criteria, can become a member of the pact. ¨In this case it means never. Georgia and Ukraine will not be able to become members of NATO for a long time. That means some reason will always be found to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from becoming members of NATO,” the expert said and added that even serious discussions were not held on the issue of the Southern Caucasus at the Summit of NATO.

¨Caucasus was not just a province in this discussion but a suburb province and the discussions about the Caucasus and especially Nagorno Karabakh were out of the authorizations of NATO. So no changes will occur in our region and even if they are, they will have no connection to the Summit of NATO,” Iskandaryan said.

MP Tevan Poghosyan mentioned that there is no such a concept as the army of NATO as that establishment has no armed forces. It´s an organization which consists of 28 countries and taking into account their interests, they either provide armed forces or not for the realization of this or that actions.

¨Inside NATO there are many conflicts, countries with different interests and some of them are pro the dialogue with Russia and the suspension of sanctions. This decision must be considered from the point of view of contradictions and conflict of interests within NATO. The communique´ adopted at the summit is a version to make agreement and to formulate a united position before the negotiations with Russia so that they could speak with official Moscow from stronger positions,” Poghosyan said. He did not exclude that during the council meeting Russia and NATO might bring their positions closer as they have joint interests: the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.   

Arshaluys Mghdesyan, editor/events coordinator at “Media Center”

To contact the author please send an email to [email protected].

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