Positive changes from the perspective of conflict resolution will be difficult in the near future. Azerbaijan will not change the strategy of aggravating the situation on the contact line if Armenia does not make changes in its actions on the front and international platforms.
This is the opinion of experts studying the negotiation process on NK conflict settlement.
Azerbaijan is pursuing a rigid policy of provocations, Stepan Grigoryan, Director of the Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation, said. According to him, Armenia should get used to the war situation, which constantly gets worse and weakens. “However, in addition to the situation on the front, we must take concrete steps in the international arena, particularly to work effectively with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs,” he said, reminding about the Minsk Group May 18 statement, which, according to the political scientist, was quite addressable, as it was mentioned who was the first shooter.
“This time it was first talked about Azerbaijan's mistakes. The co-chairing countries should also begin to make condemning statements by saying exactly who the shooter is. The OSCE Minsk Group should do this not for us but for its reputation,” Stepan Grigoryan said. In his words, Armenia makes the right step when the Foreign Minister asks the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs to carry out concrete actions to suppress Baku.
A discussion entitled “An Attempt to Restrain War? The Accents of the Statement by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs” was held at Media Center on June 21 with the participation of Stepan Grigoryan, Karen Vrtanesyan, Website Coordinator of “Razminfo”, Expert and Arthur Martirosyan, Expert on Negotiations Procedure, Chief Consultant at CM&Partners Company (via video call from USA).
Karen Vartanesyan began his speech saying that the Armenian-Azerbaijani war was not over, and its proof was not the only war in April. “It is clear from the events of August 2014 that Azerbaijan has chosen the path of hostilities that cannot be called provocation anymore," he said, adding that after the April military confrontations a lot of work was done on the contact line but they were mainly attempts to prevent sabotages. Cameras and other mechanisms will not be protected against artillery strikes,” he said.
According to the expert, as a result of furnishing and upgrading of the front line, the Armenian side is already recording the advancement of the enemy troops earlier. “It's important because after Azerbaijan's subversive attack on February 25 this year, Azerbaijan has not repeated it any more. But this does not mean that we are 100% protected because both sides are developing their capabilities,” the expert said. Karen Vrtanesyan noted that Azerbaijan is guided not by subversion attempts but by artillery.
He thinks that Azerbaijan chose the strategy of an exhausting war Armenia has to rely only on its armed forces and economic development. “Azerbaijan will not go to large-scale military operations; it will not risk it as its oil pipeline is at a distance of 20 kilometers from our border. If we deliver Artsakh to Azerbaijan on a tray, it will not refuse but there will be no large-scale war, even though there may be more major military operations like in April,” Karen Vrtanesyan said.
Arthur Martirosyan agreed with the opinions of the speakers that Azerbaijan chose the strategy of an exhausting war. “It will continue to do harm to the Armenian parties as long as the steps have not been taken to change the situation,” he said, adding that the situation will change when Azerbaijan begins to realize that its policy exhausted itself and no longer succeeds.
“Baku's vision is that it can cause serious damage to the Armenian side and show that it can continue that path. Aliyev and his supporters seem to have gained advantage over power, this stereotype must be broken. The adversary must understand that his actions can also have an effect on him. Azerbaijan's attitude towards the negotiation process can be changed, for example, if Baku has territorial losses,” Arthur Martirosyan concluded.
To watch the video, follow the link.