“What Did Sargsyan-Aliyev-Putin Meeting Give?”
“The United States and France shared the fate of Nagorno Karabakh. At some point Karabakh was dismissed from the negotiation process, this time the French and US representatives were hardly allowed to approach the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is almost the same fate. This is both positive and negative. The positive thing is that the United States, France and Nagorno-Karabakh were put on the same level. On the other hand, when the number of mediators is reduced it is not so good,” Stepan Grigoryan, Chairman of the Board of the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation (ACGRC), said during the discussion on “What Did Sargsyan-Aliyev-Putin Meeting Give?” at Media Center.

In his opinion, it is clear that Russia wants to take the initiative. "It is also obvious that, unfortunately, we cannot claim that NKR should participate in the negotiation process. The big mistake is also that we do not raise the issue of snipers. It is clear that there is a problem of a political will. If there is a clear issue of bringing out the snipers, no money, nothing is necessary here. It is hard to say why these issues are not raised."

As a reply to the question whether the meeting in St. Petersburg was the continuation of the process in Vienna, the speaker said. "In Vienna it was decided that the office of Kasperchik will be extended, the military operation will be investigated, and studies will be carried out to determine the attacking side. It is obvious that this time the second issue was not discussed at all. Azerbaijan did not even want to discuss it. The Kasperchik office expansion will not change anything. There is no difference if 5 or 25 people will conduct the oversight of the 200-kilometer contact line."
Doctor of Political Science Levon Shirinyan noted that contrary to Russia's wishes, it was not allowed to take the sole leadership of the management process. "There was something that was important to us. Russia failed to be a monopolist in the regulation process. Minsk group members did not allow it. It is clear that Azerbaijan will not change its behavior. Military exercises began shortly before the meeting. They show that they have a fighting mood and will continue to do so. For us it will be a real success to use the peaceful situation to prepare the army, as well as the commanding staff for the war. I think nothing has changed in other issues."
Political analyst Yervand Bozoyan, however, records a clear change in the negotiating format. According to him, the meeting in St. Petersburg, also the joint statement that the tripartite meetings, in addition to the OSCE process will continue show the formation of a new format on Karabakh conflict settlement. "I doubt that Serzh Sargsyan will truly reveal what they were talking. Years ago, "Kazan", that the President approved, was not even explained. The public learned about it after the war in 2016. Here our society must maintain its vigilance, because Azerbaijan became more powerful, the balance changed in favor of it. Aliyev threatens that if a real process does not included in the negotiations, it will launch military operations, which is profitable neither for Russia, nor for the West for various reasons."

Political Scientist Stepan Grigoryan said. "As long as tensions are not raised on the border, it is bad, it leads to Kazan, 2, and if Azerbaijan will start aggression again, it will mean that he is not satisfied. Here is contrary to logic. Today's peace is very serious threat for the future," the analyst concluded. 
Speakers also referred to the arrest of Zhirayr Sefilyan during the discussion. S. Grigoryan, considered Sefilyan to be a "potential political prisoner" and the analyst Yervand Bozoyan said: "Zhirayr Sefilyan was arrested on June 20, the day when the three leaders will meet, sorry, I have a doubt that the Armenian side wants to send a message to the other parties by this arrest saying that they are going to take certain steps and for that they need to dismiss the radical circles. This is a very bad message to the mediators, Azerbaijan and Russia. They see the weakness of the Armenian side. No matter what opinion Zhirayr Sefilyan has, I think he has the right to have such an opinion in any case. If the government wants to weaken unauthorized maneuver field, it means that he already has some solutions, which is concerning,” he said.

Arevik Sahakyan, Program coordinator at “Media Center”

To contact the author please send an email toareviksahakyan@mail.ru

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