As experts state 2016 is going to be really hard for economy
22.12.2015
13:00
The indicators of Armenian economy by the end of the year don't inspire optimism and upcoming 2016 will be hard time for economy. With the exception of agriculture and industry, an apparent decrease is noticed in spheres such as exporting, importing and transferring, had already expired itself. The economists announced about that during the discussion, which took place in Media Center.

This year in November due to official data, the indicator of economical activity fell around 3 percent compared with previous November. The indicators of retail trade fell, which is the most notable indicator describing the social-economical condition of the country, amounted to 14,2 percent in November, which is unprecedented during the year. It’s a consequence of drastic reduction of transfers, which came to approximately 40 percent (500 US dollar) annualy. The transfers, which cover the gaps of exports and imports, are reduce the purchasing capacity of the population.     

The scale of export has also reduced parallely to import during the last two months. If the export had reduced by 11,8 percent in October, then in November it reduced to 24,4 percent compared within the same period of last year. The industry of electricity also reduced approximately to 6 percent in November. Armenia close the economical year with such indicators and enter 2016 expectation of 2,2 percent of economical growth. Next year it is also expectedto have 3 percent of GDP's tax amount, which comes to 20 percent of GDP.    

Simultaneously the Government of Armenia steadily rises the amount of foreign debts coming to 49 percent of GDP. Last years approximately 210 thousand economically active people emigrated from Armenia. But at the same time GDP as a dollar monetary unit not only hadn't grown, but also reduced. But foreign debt of Armenia grew very drastically, approximately 3 times.   

MP Mikayel Melkumyan consider the reduction of export value unprecedented. Due to him, there are two causes of this situiation. They are non effective internal management and external economic impulses.  

“The situation is clear in external market especially in Russia. The fall of oil prices and inflation of rouble have their effect on Armenian economy. Russia is the main trade partner of Armenia, and the most part of transfers come from Russia into Armenia. It is known to everyone and it is an objective circumstance for Armenia”,-explained Melkumyan and added, that Armenian authorities could weaken those negative impulses, if till now had done clear steps to defense from crisis.

“During these years some steps for diversification of export must be created, for forming of new industrial power, for promotion of real investments in economy, for creation of equal competition and for abolition of monopoly”,-stated Melkumyan.

On the 22nd of December in Media Center Mikayel Melkumyan and economist Vahagn Khachatryan, Vilen Khachatryan and Tatul Manaseryan took part in the discussion entitled “Armenian economy in conditions of global challenges: the year-end observations”.   Vahagn Khachatryan mentioned, that on the background of the fall of economic indicators, the absence of perspective negatively effects the expectations of people.

“I don’t see ambitions and clear target of perspectives in actions of the Government”,-mentioned Khachatryan and added that the key to solution for economic issues is in the political field.

“Some courageous and well-motivated steps are required for changes of economic model. Political will power is needed for that. Political steps are required, not economical. The model of import, which existed in case of transfers’ inflow, has already expired itself. This model doesn’t support jobs, people just bring and sell goods”,-Khachatryan added.

Tatul Manaseryan said, that the main problem of Armenian economy is the absence of confidence.

“First of all we have to revitalize the confidence of internal investors. If internal investors don’t rely on economy and don’t invest, so how to involve external investors?  So some steps are needed, which Miqayel Melkumyan listed. Neither 2,9, nor 5 percent of economic growth is not a rescue in such conditions, we need ambitious, challenging plans and the double number growth”,-said expert and added that the Government has to ‘’leave  the small business alone’’ in general.

“Self-employment should be promoted, not to press small business even not to give sale of sunflower to somebody”,-clarified he.

Vilen Khachatryan coming to agreement with experts stated, that the main problem of Armenian economy is non effective internal management and hyper vigilance of financial system.

“Banking system doesn’t promote the development of economy. The high percentage credits make a burden for economy instead of promoting. Besides that the situation in financial system is also an indicator of not a good economy. Continuously deposits grow and the value of credits reduces.  It’s an index of distrust, because people prefer to save money in banks, but not use it in economy and not do investments”,-stated the expert. 

Arshaluys Mghdesyaneditor/events coordinator at “Media Center”

To contact the author please send an email to  arshaluismghdesyan@pjc.am.

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