Armenia’s Population Will Decrease, UN Projects
28.08.2015
11:00
The population of Armenia will plunge to 1.8 million by 2100, the 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects by UN projects.

UNFPA Armenia Assistant Representative Garik Hayrapetyan and demographer Ruben Yeganyan shared insights on the results of the latest UN report.

The forecasts of demographic rates, Garik Hayrapetyan said, are made through average projections.

“Actually, projections are made by optimistic, medium variant and pessimistic scenarios. In 2100 Armenia will have 1.8 million population. The pessimistic variant projection states the population will decrease to less than one million in 2100,” Hayrapetyan said.

The world population is projected to reach 11.2 billion from current 7.3 billion by 2100. Asia will see a likely contraction of the total population size. Europe will suffer a decrease, with 646 million people in 2100. The fastest-growing area is Africa where population is projected to reach 4.4 billion. Population growth in Turkey and Iran will remain high but they will also see a decrease.

“A major concern for Armenia is the number of workers per retiree. Currently the ratio in the country is 5.4 workers per retiree whereas the medium variant projection defines the number will be 2.4 per one retiree in 2100 and the pessimistic projection sets the one per one variant. It will evolve into a huge social-economic burden for workers and put an end to the principle of generations’ solidarity,” Hayrapetyan said.

With respect to the sex ratio in Armenia, Hayrapetyan said, “Now the sex ratio is 86 males to 100 females but this covers the whole population of Armenia. Meanwhile, among 0-19 olds males exceed females by 11.4,” Hayrapetyan said.

Ruben Yeganyan prioritized migration as a main factor determining these rates. “Now 30 thousand people annually emigrate from Armenia.”

In the coming years Armenia’s population is expected to decrease by 12 thousand per year.

Like any projection the UN projections, Yeganyan commented, may be realistic and non-realistic.

“Let’s go back to 1980ies when the population of Armenia was projected to exceed 4 million in the coming years but life went on and we can see what remained after that,” Yeganyan said.

Yeganyan, though, does not consider the presented rates unexpected and believes the country should work to address the issue, develop mechanisms to influence the situation so that the projections do not eventually come true.

Lilit Arakelyan, Editor-Coordinator

Please contact the author at lilitarakelyan@pjc.am.

Videos
Print Friendly and PDF
More Press Releases
Reasons and Tendencies of Hepatitis Transmission in Armenia
16.08.2018
12:00
Media Center, Yerevan, in 2017-2018 Positive People Armenian Network NGO conducted a research in Yerevan, Gyumri, Vanadzor, Hrazdan, Sevan, Gavar, Martuni and in Armavir aimed at early disclosure of virus hepatitis B and C among population and raising awareness.
Defense Field State Procurement Contain Intense Corruption Risks: Expert
26.07.2018
14:00
On July 26 Artak Manukyan president of National Center of Public Policy Research presented the monitoring results of 2017-2018 defense field state procurements at Media Center.
Media: New Authorities, Tendencies to be Concerned About
25.07.2018
12:00
Manipulation, campaigns, disinformation, fake sites, all this has always been in media. It’s the scales we witness currently that enables media experts to label the situation as critical.
“The Obstacles Facing the Monitoring Group and Current Problems Relating to Violation of Human Rights in Penitentiary Institutions”
25.07.2018
11:00
After the velvet revolution the ministry of justice sticks to the same position and keeps hindering the group's activity the same way", stated Nare Hovhannisyan, member of the public monitoring group in conducting public control in RA ministry of justice at July 25 Media Center discussion.
The Conditions of Russian Military Base Armenian Stay Should be Clarified
23.07.2018
13:00
At July 23 Media Center discussion on “Unrest over Panik Incident”, Artur Sakunts, head of Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly Vanadzor Office labelled July 17 Panik incident on behalf of Russian military as terror act against the local population.
Follow us on social networks
Registration of events
Services
Videos
Armenia-Turkey Events